Optimistic Trend Recurs

ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

(PresseBox) ( Mannheim, )
In May 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) display a revision of last month's decline, thereby crawling back to a positive trend. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe increases by 15.4 points (April 2013: decline by 20.4 points after four consecutive increases). The balance of experts' expectations is currently set at 44.9 points. In spite of prevailing uncertainty in the Eurozone, experts' optimism increases in May for all countries in the CEE region and for the Eurozone (indicator increase by 31.1 points). The by far strongest increase is displayed by the economic sentiment for Romania (indicator increase by 28.8 points). This is in line with the announcement of the National Bank of Romania to start a cycle of interest rate cuts and also with the rather positive forecast of the European Commission for Romania announced at the beginning of May (Source: European Economic Forecast, Spring 2013).

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts' expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

In May 2013 the experts' assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region remains almost unchanged at a level of 6.7 points after an increase by 0.7 points.

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria, because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia , Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts' assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly 'Financial Market Report CEE' contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.
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