Economic Expectations for China Still Positive

China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan University

Mannheim, (PresseBox) - In September 2013 the CEP-Indicator of Economic Sentiment for China reaches 18.8 points displaying an ongoing positive sentiment. The CEP-Indicator of Economic Sentiment captures the expectations of financial market experts regarding the economic development in China over the course of the next twelve months. In September 63.9 percent of the surveyed experts expect the economic development in China to improve over the next twelve months, while 27.8 percent expect the economic perspectives to worsen. The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and the Fudan University in Shanghai publish the results of the "China Economic Panel" (CEP) for the second time. CEP is a panel of experts focused on China. It serves to investigate the country's development in the world economy on the basis of a monthly survey of economic data.

China's current economic situation is also seen optimistic by the surveyed experts. Every second survey participant continues to assess China's current economic state as "normal". The share of optimists (31 per cent) noticeably exceeds the share of pessimists, represented by a group of 11.3 percent of analysts. This results in a balance of 12.7 points, which remains more optimistic than the balance for the Eurozone (minus 13.4 points).

The expectations for the GDP growth rate in China are projected at 7.6 percent in 2013 and 7.5 percent in 2014. During the next twelve months, 85.2 percent of the experts expect foreign direct investments of Chinese investors to grow further. For the same time horizon, the results show a continuing strong increase of companies' turnovers for all economic sectors, except the steel/metal sector (due to large overstocks) and the machinery/engineering sector, which is still suffering from weak demand caused by the world economic crisis.

"Financial market analysts expect the highest growth rate within China for the Shanghai region. The recently launched free trade zone there will increasingly attract foreign companies. They can profit from extensive liberalization as for example reduced business tax rates which are reduced from 25 to 15 percent", says Dr. Gunnar Lang, deputy head of ZEW's Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management".

Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW)

The Centre for European Economic Research has designed and conducted surveys on business and economic data for many years. The "ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment", one of the major early indicators for Germany and the euro area, has been compiled by ZEW researchers for more than 20 years. Moreover, the institute has been conducting expert surveys in cooperation with Credit Suisse and Erste Group Bank on the economic situation and development in Switzerland, Austria, and several Eastern European countries on a regular basis.

ZEW is one of Germany's leading economic research institutes and enjoys a strong reputation throughout Europe. ZEW has distinguished itself by analysing internationally comparative issues in the European context and creating data bases important for scientific research, e.g. Mannheim Innovation Panel (MIP), ZEW Start-Up Panel. ZEW's key objectives are conducting economic research, providing economic policy advising and transferring knowledge. ZEW was founded in 1990 and currently employs a staff of 180, of whom two thirds are researchers.

Research at ZEW:

International Finance and Financial Management; Labour Markets, Human Resources and Social Policy; Industrial Economics and International Management; Corporate Taxation and Public Finance; Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management; Information and Communication Technologies; Growth and Business Cycles; Competition and Regulation, International Distribution and Redistribution.

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