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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. Poschingerstr. 5 81679 München, Germany http://www.ifo.de
Contact Mr Nikolay Hristov +49 89 92241225
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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V.

Euro-zone economic outlook: Rezession in Sicht

Gemeinsame Konjunkturprognose von ifo Institut, INSEE und Istat

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Der Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts der Eurozone war im dritten Quartal 2011 aufgrund der Abschwächung der Auslandsnachfrage, den Konsolidierungsbemühungen in einigen Mitgliedsländern sowie der gestiegenen Unsicherheit wegen der Staatsschuldenkrise mit 0,1% erneut gering. Der private Konsum expandierte dabei nur schwach (+0,2%), während die Investitionen leicht fielen (-0,1%). Unter der Annahme, dass die Staatsschuldenkrise in der Eurozone durch adäquate Entscheidungen der Politik im Zaum gehalten werden kann, gehen wir davon aus, dass die Eurozone eine milde (und relativ kurze) Rezession durchlaufen wird. Das reale BIP wird zum Jahreswechsel vorrausichtlich sinken (-0,3% in Q4 2011 und -0,2% in Q1 2012) und in
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