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Überschwemmt der Anleiheabbau der Zentralbanken die Märkte?

Von Mahmood Pradhan, Head Global Macro Economics at the Amundi Investment Institute

(PresseBox) (München, )
Der jüngste Anstieg der weltweiten Anleiherenditen ist zum Teil auf die Sorge über ein größeres Angebot von Staatsanleihen auf den Märkten zurückzuführen. Ein Teil dieses Renditeanstiegs dürfte sich umkehren, wenn sich die Inflation den Zielen der Zentralbanken nähert und somit die Geldpolitik weniger restriktiv wird. Aber auch die Zentralbanken werden das Angebot an Staatsanleihen am Markt erhöhen, wenn sie ihre beispiellos großen Bilanzen abbauen – von aktuell 30 % des BIP bei der US-Notenbank Fed bis zu 50 % des BIP der Eurozone bei der Europäischen Zentralbank gemäß Bloomberg-Daten. Das ist deutlich mehr als die durchschnittlichen 10 % des BIP,
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