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Germany's industrial production growing at 1.5% p.a., stagnation likely in 2019
The new Quest Economic Report based on the up-to-data from May examines the trend growth of industrial production in Germany and combines the current situation with a trend forecast
Only at the end of 2015 the trend growth in industrial production exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2008 (99.8 index points) for the first time with 100 index points. Since the beginning of 2016, a sustained growth trend has emerged at 1.5% per year in May 2019. At the end of last year, the growth trend still stood a 2% p.a.
The new Quest Economic Report puts forward the thesis that industrial production is likely to stagnate in the current year.
The report cites the situation of the global economy, which is characterized by a mixture of growth, stagnation and decline. This is a fragile situation and the report notes that the factors for maintaining it are weakening. Keywords relating to these factors are: Continuation of the galloping national debt increases risks; weakening growth rates in China; aggressive US policy under Trump and the emergence of a new bipolar power structure in the world that restricts the world economy.
The new Quest Economic Report concludes from the trend in industrial production that the 2018 growth trend has been exhausted. Industrial production in 2018 could no longer surpass the highs of previous years, at the same time production lows were weaker - production development is flattening out and turning into stagnation.
It remains to be seen how long the stagnation will last. It is more likely that stagnation will result in a crisis than the emergence of a new growth trend.
The new economic report on industrial production in Germany is available on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/global-economy/industrialized-countries/germany.html
In regard to the global economy the Quest Trend Magazine offers an analysis of the most important export markets on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/global-economy/outlook.html
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