Despite the continuing global macroeconomic problems, semiconductor inventory overbuild early this year, and current DRAM oversupply, semiconductor revenues will register positive year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.4% and 3.1% with $296 billion and $305 billion for 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to the year-end 2011 update of IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster (SAF).
"The 2011 year-end update reaffirms the views IDC expressed in its qualitative SAF update published in November 2011. We expect the semiconductor market to bottom by the second quarter of next year and growth to resume for the market and accelerate in the second half of 2012. The enterprise spending cycle should continue in 2012, and the launch of Windows 8 for tablets and ultrabooks will drive demand for computing platforms. Smartphone penetration will accelerate with the growth of lower-cost devices in emerging markets. Datacenter and storage will also continue to grow in order to support cloud-based applications and data traffic will drive more investments in networking and computing infrastructure. Double-digit growth is also expected for consumer devices such as media tablets and eReaders. Finally, the automotive area will bottom sooner than most markets and have a healthy cycle of growth for semiconductor suppliers. Recovery will continue into 2013 and beyond, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the 2011-2016 forecast period for semiconductor revenues," said Mali Venkatesan, research manager, Semiconductors at IDC, who led the study and compiled the SAF data.
Other key findings from IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster include:
- Semiconductor revenues for the Computing industry segment, which represents about 37% of all semiconductor revenues, will log YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 0.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Within that, semiconductor revenues for mobile PCs will register YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 6.2% and 11.4%.
- Semiconductor revenues for the Communications industry segment will grow 5.5% in 2012 with a CAGR (2011-2016) of 5.2%. Semiconductor revenues for 4G phones will show YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 400% and 98%, respectively.
- Media tablets, e-Readers, HD receivers, and LED/LCD TV sets, will see strong demand 2012 as they did in 2011. Traditional devices such as DVD players, DVD recorders, and fixed game consoles will continue to see unit sales erosion. Overall, semiconductor revenues for the Consumer industry segment will record YoY (2012) and CAGR (2010-2016) growth rates of 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively.
- Semiconductor revenues for the Automotive segment and Industrial segment, which includes energy, medical, industrial automation, military and aero, are expected to grow with YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) of 3.4% and 6.7%, respectively.
- Among semiconductor devices, ASSP revenues for media/audio/graphics will show a CAGR (2011-2016) of 9.2%; but DRAM revenues will decline due to continued pricing pressure with a CAGR (2011-2016) of 1.7%, after a -16% decline in 2012.
- Regionally, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching 42% in 2016.
IDC's Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster database serves as the basis for all IDC semiconductor supply-side documents, including market forecasts and consulting projects. This database contains revenue data collected from the top 100 semiconductor companies for 2006-2010 and market history and forecasts for 2006-2016. Revenue for over twelve semiconductor device areas, four geographic regions, six end-application vertical markets, and more than 70 end-device applications are also included in the database.
"The 2011 year-end update reaffirms the views IDC expressed in its qualitative SAF update published in November 2011. We expect the semiconductor market to bottom by the second quarter of next year and growth to resume for the market and accelerate in the second half of 2012. The enterprise spending cycle should continue in 2012, and the launch of Windows 8 for tablets and ultrabooks will drive demand for computing platforms. Smartphone penetration will accelerate with the growth of lower-cost devices in emerging markets. Datacenter and storage will also continue to grow in order to support cloud-based applications and data traffic will drive more investments in networking and computing infrastructure. Double-digit growth is also expected for consumer devices such as media tablets and eReaders. Finally, the automotive area will bottom sooner than most markets and have a healthy cycle of growth for semiconductor suppliers. Recovery will continue into 2013 and beyond, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the 2011-2016 forecast period for semiconductor revenues," said Mali Venkatesan, research manager, Semiconductors at IDC, who led the study and compiled the SAF data.
Other key findings from IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster include:
- Semiconductor revenues for the Computing industry segment, which represents about 37% of all semiconductor revenues, will log YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 0.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Within that, semiconductor revenues for mobile PCs will register YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 6.2% and 11.4%.
- Semiconductor revenues for the Communications industry segment will grow 5.5% in 2012 with a CAGR (2011-2016) of 5.2%. Semiconductor revenues for 4G phones will show YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) growth rates of 400% and 98%, respectively.
- Media tablets, e-Readers, HD receivers, and LED/LCD TV sets, will see strong demand 2012 as they did in 2011. Traditional devices such as DVD players, DVD recorders, and fixed game consoles will continue to see unit sales erosion. Overall, semiconductor revenues for the Consumer industry segment will record YoY (2012) and CAGR (2010-2016) growth rates of 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively.
- Semiconductor revenues for the Automotive segment and Industrial segment, which includes energy, medical, industrial automation, military and aero, are expected to grow with YoY (2012) and CAGR (2011-2016) of 3.4% and 6.7%, respectively.
- Among semiconductor devices, ASSP revenues for media/audio/graphics will show a CAGR (2011-2016) of 9.2%; but DRAM revenues will decline due to continued pricing pressure with a CAGR (2011-2016) of 1.7%, after a -16% decline in 2012.
- Regionally, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching 42% in 2016.
IDC's Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster database serves as the basis for all IDC semiconductor supply-side documents, including market forecasts and consulting projects. This database contains revenue data collected from the top 100 semiconductor companies for 2006-2010 and market history and forecasts for 2006-2016. Revenue for over twelve semiconductor device areas, four geographic regions, six end-application vertical markets, and more than 70 end-device applications are also included in the database.
