Gartner: Marktzahlen als Hintergrundmaterial zur IFA 2012

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Gartner is able to provide you with the most up-to-date and insightful market figures to help place the news from IFA 2012 into context. This document contains data on the key areas of the consumer technology industry.


2Q12 PC Vendor Shipments and Market Shares, Worldwide and EMEA

Worldwide PC shipments totalled 87.5 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a decline of 0.1 per cent from the second quarter of 2011, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

"In the second quarter of 2012, the PC market suffered through its seventh consecutive quarter of flat to single-digit growth," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "Uncertainties in the economy in various regions, as well as consumer's low interest in PC purchases, were some of the key influencers of slow PC shipment growth. Despite the high expectations for the thin and light notebook segment, Ultrabooks, shipment volume was small and little impact on overall shipment growth."

From a regional perspective, EMEA, Asia/Pacific and Japan registered low single digit-growth while all Americas markets posted year-on-year shipment declines.

PC shipments in EMEA totalled 25.1 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a 1.9 per cent increase from the same period last year. Western Europe saw very weak demand across all countries but especially Southern Europe. Consumer willingness to spend on PCs was furthered hindered by the growing eurozone economic crisis. Retailers again took a risk adverse approach but distributors may well have greater levels of inventory. This will hinder future growth of markets as Windows 8 and more Ultramobile notebooks arrive in the second half of 2012.

The Asia/Pacific PC market grew 2 per cent, as shipments reached 31.8 million units. The weak US and European economic situation, coupled with the slowing economy in China, affected the region's market sentiments where people reacted by scaling back on spending due to the uncertainties. There was the tightening of budgets in the professional segment, as well as a lack in new government initiatives to stimulate IT purchasing activities. Consumers either spent on alternative devices or remained cautious on discretionary spending.

In Latin America, PC shipments in the second quarter of 2012 totalled 9.3 million units, a decline of 1.7 per cent from the second quarter of last year. PC shipments in Japan grew 2 per cent in the second quarter of 2012, as shipments surpassed 3.9 million units.


Consumer Tech Spending Forecast, Worldwide

Consumers will spend $2.1 trillion worldwide on digital information and entertainment products and services in 2012, according to Gartner, Inc. This amounts to a $114 billion global increase compared with 2011, and spending will continue to grow at a faster rate than in the past, at around $130 billion a year, to reach $2.7 trillion by the end of 2016.

The $2.1 trillion consists of what the consumers will spend on mobile phones, computing and entertainment, media and other smart devices, the services that are required to make these devices connected to the appropriate network, and software and media content that are consumed via these devices.

"The three largest segments of the consumer technology market are, and will continue to be, mobile services, mobile phones and entertainment services," said Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at Gartner. "There are two product classes, which in terms of absolute dollars are significantly smaller, but offer tremendous growth by 2016. These are mobile apps stores and e-text content. We fully expect consumers to more than triple their spending in these latter two categories by 2016."

Mobile services are expected to generate 37 per cent of total worldwide consumer technology spending in 2012 - that is $0.8 trillion - rising to almost $1 trillion by 2016. Mobile phones will account for 10 per cent of total spending in 2012 - that is $222 billion - rising to almost $300 billion by 2016. Similarly, entertainment services - cable, satellite, IPTV and online gaming, will account for 10 percent of total consumer spending on technology products and services in 2012, at $210 billion, rising to almost $290 billion in 2016.

Gartner predicts that consumer spending on mobile apps stores and content will rise from $18 billion in 2012 to $61 billion by 2016, and that spending on e-text content (e-books, online news, magazines and information services) will rise from $5 billion in 2012 to $16 billion by 2016.

2Q12 Mobile Devices, Worldwide

Worldwide sales of mobile phones to end users reached 419 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a 2.3 per cent decline from the second quarter of 2011, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphone sales accounted for 36.7 per cent of total mobile phone sales and grew 42.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.

"Demand slowed further in the second quarter of 2012," said Anshul Gupta, principal research analyst at Gartner. "The challenging economic environment and users postponing upgrades to take advantage of high-profile device launches and promotions available later in the year slowed demand across markets. Demand of feature phones continued to decline, significantly weakening the overall mobile phone market.

"High-profile smartphone launches from key manufacturers such as the anticipated Apple iPhone 5, along with Chinese manufacturers pushing 3G and preparing for major device launches in the second half of 2012, will drive the smartphone market upward. However, feature phones will continue to see pressure," Mr Gupta said.

In the smartphone OS market, Android extended its lead with an increase of 20.7 percentage points in market share in the second quarter of 2012 (see Table 2). While Apple's iOS market share slightly grew year over year (0.6 per cent), it declined 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, as users postponed their upgrade decisions in most markets ahead of the upcoming launch of the iPhone 5.

Gartner analysts said the arrival of the iPhone 5 should provide the greatest upgrade opportunity yet as the expected new design with a larger screen and likely other stylistic changes to the form factor will certainly make a strong case for iPhone 4 users to upgrade.

Mobile Payments Forecast, 2009-2016, Worldwide

Worldwide mobile payment transaction values will surpass $171.5 billion in 2012, a 61.9 per cent increase from 2011 values of $105.9 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. The number of mobile payment users will reach 212.2 million in 2012, up from 160.5 million in 2011.

"We expect global mobile transaction volume and value to average 42 per cent annual growth between 2011 and 2016, and we are forecasting a market worth $617 billion with 448 million users by 2016," said Sandy Shen, research director at Gartner. "This will bring opportunities for service and solution providers who will need to cater to the local demand patterns to customise their offerings."


Social Media Revenue Forecast, 2010-2013, Worldwide

Global social media revenue is forecast to reach $16.9 billion in 2012, up 43.1 per cent from 2011 revenue of $11.8 billion, according to Gartner, Inc.

Consumer Electronic Equipment

Blue Laser DVD Players

Gartner has decreased the unit production forecast of blue laser DVD players in response to weak consumer demand, especially in the US and Europe, due to increasing competition from alternative video distribution services.


Poor consumer confidence levels in the major Western markets continue to suppress demand for all types of TVs as well as other consumer electronics. In this first quarter of 2012 update, we have not altered our 2012 estimates of 206 million units, which represents a 5 per cent growth from 2011. As Gartner predicted, 2010 was the last year of double-digit growth for LCD TV unit production, as global markets start to reach saturation and enter the classic replacement cycle. The LCD market is now in line with growth patterns prior to the transition to flat-panel displays. The volume of LCD TV production is predicted to be sustained by the emerging markets of the BRIC countries, while in the developed markets, the introduction of Internet-connected smart TVs will offer manufacturers some form of differentiation - but few growth prospects - in this low-margin, highly competitive market.

Digital Still Cameras (DSCs)

Gartner decreased the unit production of DSCs in 2011 and 2012 due to negative global macroeconomic conditions, as well as the floods in Thailand. Low-end DSCs will continue to face competition from mobile phones and media tablets. Intensifying competition, accompanied by rapid price declines, will affect DSC semiconductor vendors, especially image sensor and image processor vendors.

Despite the negative conditions faced by the low-end DSC market, we have increased the growth rate forecast beginning in 2013, as we anticipate increasing demand of midrange and high-end products in developed and emerging countries.
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