2.7 GW onshore wind until 2015
The market growth in MENA is already visible. Already today 1.4 GW are in operation, of which 22% has been installed in 2013. Currently projects of 1.3 GW are either under construction or shortly before construction. Today onshore wind meets less than 1% of the energy demand in the region. In its latest report, Desert Power: Getting Started, Dii forecasted that onshore wind could meet around 50% of the energy demand in the region due to the cost competitiveness of the technology and the vast quantity of available sites with favorable wind speeds.
Algeria in-depth report - Wind plants are competitive
Together with the Algerian utility Sonelgaz, Dii has analyzed the wind potential in Algeria. Given the very good wind conditions at selected sites and assuming favorable local financing opportunities, wind power plants in Algeria can achieve LCOEs of 6.5 €ct/kWh to 8.5 €ct/kWh. When including transmission costs to Italy via a HVDC interconnector, wind electricity exports from Algeria could amount to 9-10 €ct/kWh. Therefore electricity from Algerian onshore wind plants can be commercially competitive at Italian wholesale market prices in 2015.
Market development needs transparency
Nevertheless, several non-economic hurdles have to be overcome: a self-sustained market requires sound regulation, and not just for the private sector. Main measures include: secure land access, secure grid access, a transparent permitting landscape, access to creditworthy customers and high-quality meteorological data. Priority should be given to practical renewable energy support schemes and power purchase agreements. An essential aspect is long-term, secure access to the grid. Local inhabitants should benefit and be involved in the development process. It is also important for approval processes to be transparent and standardized. Reliable measurement and irradiation data will contribute to a foreseeable return on investment.