Acrys new ABCP-fraud detection scheme proven on manipulated data

Figure1: The figure comparing the similarity of the production and sales process of consecutive delivery data deviates at least 5 times more for manipulated data than for other sample industries.
(PresseBox) ( Frankfurt, )
Motivated by recent popular fraud events in SME trade receivable ABCP transactions, Acrys Consult developed a sensitive statistical method to detect manipulation of asset and cash flow data.

Based on the assumption that genuine accounting data should follow a so called Newcomb Benford Distribution or at least should origin out of a stable delivery, production and sales process, we can now test for accounting data irregularities.

To prove the methods reliability, we applied it to several raw asset files which originated from real corporates. These corporates have been known to either possess irregular processes or even frauds. The results where very unambiguous. It can be concluded with a confidence exceeding 90%, that the data from one delivery did not comply with the process which generated the data from other deliveries. This raises the suspicion of a very irregular sales or invoicing process. For example the detected deviations where at least 5 times higher than the ones of comparable industries (see graphic below).

Implementing this analytical method can help to detect irregularities early, thus allowing for counter measures to be taken in advance. The method can be applied to practically all accounting data, e.g. to historical data even before the first purchase.

This testing method will be part of future releases of PoolArranger but is also available as a stand alone service. Should you be interested in this service or have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Acrys Consult GmbH & Co. KG
Dr. Ralf Salzgeber, Manager
Untermainkai 29-30
D-60329 Frankfurt am Main
T: +49-69-244506-0
F: +49-69-244506-50
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