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Coronavirus Epidemic: Growth Forecasts for China Drop Significantly
China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan University (Shanghai)
The first quarter of 2020 is expected to see GDP growth of only 4.2 per cent, coming down from the 6.0 per cent forecast in the January survey. “This sharp decline in forecasts is a consequence of the spreading coronavirus epidemic in China,” says Dr. Michael Schröder, senior researcher in the Research Department “International Finance and Financial Management” at ZEW Mannheim and project leader of the CEP survey. Although the experts expect a return to more normal economic conditions with GDP growth of 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, this figure is still significantly below January’s forecast of 6.0 per cent. The experts thus expect negative effects of the coronavirus epidemic to hit the second quarter as well. The forecast for the entire year of 2020 has dropped to a mere 5.4 per cent. This figure is far below the six per cent target set by the Chinese government. “According to the survey participants, the virus epidemic will have a very significant impact on China’s economic development this year. Not until 2021 do the experts expect to see GDP growth of 5.7 per cent, which is the usual growth rate for China,” Schröder summarises.
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