2017/18 soybean production might fall below global consumption(PresseBox) ( Berlin, )
USDA's current monthly report provides the first official forecast for the coming 2017/18 marketing year. It anticipates a slight decline in world soybean output by 1 per cent from the previous year, to 345 million tonnes. Whereas the USDA report projects China to see a 7 per cent rise and Canadian output to grow by even 28 per cent, Brazil is predicted to experience a 4 per cent decline of 3.6 million tonnes to 107 million tonnes. By contrast, USDA forecasts crushing to grow further in 2017/18, by 3.7 per cent from the previous year to 301 million tonnes. Other soybean uses are also estimated slightly higher than 2016/17 at just less than 45 million tonnes. This means that total global consumption would amount to 346 million tonnes. Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) (AMI) calculates that if this forecast were to come true, global soybean production would be more than 1 million tonnes below projected consumption. Accordingly, world ending stocks would fall by 1.5 per cent from 2016/17, to 89 million tonnes.