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ENTSO-E Publishes its Winter Outlook Report 2012-2013

(PresseBox) (Brussels, ) ENTSO-E published its annual Winter Outlook Report 2012-2013 and Summer Review 2012. The report aims to assess the adequacy of the power system for the coming winter period (weeks 49/2012 to 13/2013) and to provide an overview of the main events occurring during the previous summer.

The 2012-2013 Report focuses on the generation adequacy of the European power system to meet demand in case of normal and severe conditions, as well as possible network bottlenecks that could affect cross-border flows. In addition, it also aims to identify risks and countermeasures planned by the TSOs in cooperation with the neighbours and the possibility for neighbouring countries to contribute to the generation/demand balance in case of needs.

Key elements and findings of the Winter Outlook Report 2012-2013 include:

- The key factors likely to affect the balance between demand and supply include the temperatures, which influence both the level of the load directly and electricity generation.
- Due to the unavailability of approximately 2000 MW of nuclear capacity in Belgium until at least January 2013, most likely throughout the entire winter period, Belgium will remain structurally dependent on imports.
- The nuclear phase out in Germany continues to have an impact on power system adequacy over the 2012-2013 winter period, not only at the national, but also at the regional level.
- The additional unavailability of 2 Belgian nuclear units means that the risk of an energy shortage in import-dependent western European countries becomes non-negligible for the coming winter, despite that this risk corresponds to events and circumstances for which the historical probability is lower than one in ten years.
- Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Latvia will also require energy imports during certain weeks of winter to ensure adequacy is maintained.
- Poland cannot ensure adequacy under severe conditions during the coming winter.
- High usage of the Denmark-Sweden and Sweden-Poland interconnectors could compromise the availability of grid related remedial actions used on the German-Polish border for alleviating congestions.
- In South East Europe, it is expected that adequacy will be maintained with the existing reservoir levels, although energy constraints may arise in cases where unfavourable hydrologic conditions persist.